Bexley Schools Treasurer Kyle Smith presented the November 2024 Five-Year Forecast to the Board of Education last week. The Five-Year Forecast, which is updated and submitted to the Ohio Department of Education and Workforce each May and November, is the primary document used to assess the financial health of the school district.
In his Board presentation, Treasurer Smith discussed the following:
Wild Cards
Changes in law that affect state or federal funding are expected after any election, resulting in a lot of unknowns. “Within Ohio, there have been talks about property tax adjustments or changes. So that is still a hot topic for our legislature that could come back and impact our funding,” Mr. Smith said.
Revenue
Funds to be collected from Issue 36, the newly passed incremental property tax levy, are included in the November forecast. The impact of the incremental levy will see revenue increase over the five years of this forecast. Revenue variations, Treasurer Smith explained, will be seen because property taxes are collected on a calendar year-basis, which staggers the district’s fiscal year. Half of the five mills will be collected in Fiscal Year 2025, but the full five mills will be collected in the calendar year.
Revenue projections from the district’s School District Income Tax are on target to what was projected in May 2024, and the new forecast increases the school district income tax assumption up 3% for this year, slightly higher than what was projected in May.
School district income tax revenue is projected to increase 3% in each of the next four fiscal years, with the exception of FY 2026. The forecast recognizes that economic indicators suggest slower growth within a year, calling for an assumption of a 2% increase in FY 2026 in income tax revenue.
State funding accounts for 16% of our revenue. For the next two fiscal years, our assumption calls for flat funding from the state, as there is no guarantee the legislature will continue to fund the Fair School Funding Plan beyond FY25. The new Ohio General Assembly will convene in January. And until the time that the legislature addresses the Fair School Funding Plan and its intended six-year phase in of funding, we will continue to project flat state funding.
Expenditures
It is expected that inflation will continue to affect school expenditures on items including supplies, course materials, equipment, and utilities.
Employee benefits, mainly health care, are becoming the area of expenditures that is outpacing inflation. For example, the school district will experience a 21% increase in the cost of employee healthcare benefits next year.
Cash Reserves & Related Policy
Deficit spending is projected throughout the Five-Year Forecast and will result in declining cash-balance reserves. With continued deficit spending, it is expected that the cash balance will be depleted in future years.
In 2022, the Board passed a cash-reserve policy addressing operating cash on hand. Specifically, the policy calls on the Treasurer to alert the Board if a forecast projects less than 70 days of operating cash within the first four years. The November 2024 forecast presently shows 82 days of operating cash by the fifth year as a result of Issue 36 funding.
“While deficit spending is not ideal and must be closely monitored, this approach was expected in the planning of the recently passed incremental levy, Treasurer Smith said. “This levy cycle approach allows for residents to keep more of their cash and provide revenues to the schools as expenditures rise”
The complete five-year forecast document is available on the district’s website.
Published November 21, 2024 | District Newsletter